Heat and humidity continue across the bi-state as we close out the holiday weekend tomorrow. Temperatures have been in the low 90s the last couple days, and we'll be right there again for Tuesday with low rain chances in the forecast.
The upper level pattern has us pretty well locked into a northwest flow, sending disturbances our way over the past week. A stalled out warm front will stay situated across areas north of I-70 on Tuesday, allowing a few thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon in the moist and unstable air mass. Coverage will be quite isolated, so its possible many areas won't see much activity at all.
This is great news for those who haven't gone to see a fireworks display yet; with a good chance of the region being dry between 8-10 PM Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, low pressure at the surface begins to slide in from the southwest, giving us our best chance of rain and thunderstorms for the whole week. With low pressure on top of us, the entire viewing area is in a marginal threat for a few strong storms by afternoon. The overall severe threat will be fairly low, with weak wind shear as you go higher in the atmosphere.
Things begin to clear out a bit by Thursday, but our next cold front is on the horizon by Friday. Scattered showers and a couple storms will be possible in the afternoon into the evening, with most areas clearing out and cooling down a bit on Saturday.
Forecast models as of this afternoon are hinting that the hottest air will stay just to our west next week, with the upper level ridge really encompassing the Plains. This would keep us in a northwest flow pattern, meaning there could be a slim chance for a shower or storm each day.